Attached is the picture of what we are looking at… As stated in last post, we got a rally right from a weekly bear and bounced tremendously into the high last week thus far. This rally was the highest rally in November since 1974.
Points to Consider:
Next week is turning point weekly.
- This will give us better projection into next 3 weeks.
- Watch weekly bear and weekly bulls closing for next week for move (green / pink)
November: Turning point
- Since November making a High on Turn Point
- If November High holds for December > Then Can Move Lower
- If November heads higher in Dec (closes above cycle invert up)
Price Points:
- 4324.30 weekly bull
- gap up (if close week above)
- 4119.30 weekly bull
- — Choppy In between —
- 3910.75 weekly bear (what if) — gave small support
- 3900.17 weekly bear (what if) – gave small support
- gap down (if close week below)
- 3818.50 weekly bear (next test if 3900.17 elected)
- 3760.30 quarter bear (support)
- 3721.56 month bear (watching close for November)
Summary:
Wait till we get there next week. Market likely to take a breather and liquidity crisis can create big moves over night. My long term investment self is to be patient into January for possible double bottom or rip thru low — freak everyone out and go long. The challenge is… International capital is likely to gobble up all the dips as they have been doing these past weeks. Don’t forget the bond crisis… 1/4 of bond capital can double the stock market.
My trading self will have a hedge of selling premium with downside delta to make me feel comfortable into any dips and re-adjust if wrong or exit. 3900.17 weekly close may be the hint for more downside, then 3818.50 — will review to see what the catalyst may be.
Things of Interest:
My long term investment self is waiting on January for a re-load… and I do not like what is going on in retail(over supply). But I must trade the numbers and it looks like Amazon may take a new low around 87(to flush out all buyers) or hold this low to bounce up cyclically into March of 2023 with the rest of the market after January.
Regardless, small risk for a good reward… I must know where I am wrong and this is where I place my stops.
Other Interesting Things:
OIL: Got the drop I wanted… has yearly support and quarterly support on 75 for Crude. January is our turning point time. This is volatile asset and USO is the ETF to play oil. Watching to see how weekly close happens in USO, testing weekly bear 67.40 and bouncing perfectly on this turning point.
Wheat Testing Yearly Bullish from The Top
Summary: US Dollar Strength Coming
We are toppy in the SPX and indexes… next week is our turning point. If this November high holds then we are likely to test lower. At that time into January we may see international capital gobble up assets??? Lets see.
Getting prepared now and hedging accordingly for down thrust in this volatile market… Liquidity crisis will cause big moves and panics… so being cautious and keeping size small and knowing where I am right and where I am wrong.
Long term US Dollar (UUP) into 2028 is another hedge for liquidity crisis and bond crisis. So buying dollars are INTL capital begs for it may be an interesting play.