As of Sept 19th, 2024 Fed has cut rates I believe by 50bp. Anything cut more than .25 will give professionals a hint that the Fed knows we are heading into hard times in the economy. (Stagflation & Recession).
Well… this appears to be the case. While the markets are rallying heavy on this news, I am cautious here due to some other variables which I will put out on this blog to see if they stand true. If not… my apologies for writing the nonsense lol!
Factors For Caution:
- Fed Rate Cut (Sept 19, 2024)
- Cut more than 25bp causes concerns (we cut 50bp)
- Recession & Stagflation worry
- War worry with Russia
- Note: Stagflation = Higher Costs, Less Income for People
- When Fed cut rates — it sends capital back into INTL below is chart of BABA
- Fed did this before as Europe was upset for all the capital leaving Europe
- This Cut is Temporary — with War Fed will have to rise rates alot more!
2. Dollar Decline into October
- A decline in the dollar may be key in dollar based assets
- This would also further recessionary trend
3. Russia Cycle in October (Coup?)
- October has been cyclically problem month for Russia
- 1917 Reveloution in 1917 was in October
- Stalin Died in October
- Watch October 14th week for Russia for news event
- Remember, NeoCons behind Putin wish to take over and go to war
- Putin has held back to not invade (opposite of US News Propaganda)
- If Putin is overthrown, It will be far worse the US NeoCons who want war
4. Upon World Wars – Gov Installs Capital Controls (Close Markets)
- WWI US shut down the market for 3 to 6 months
- To avoid capital coming in or out – Gov can shut down markets
- This can be a huge risk
- After markets re-opened they had the Rally we want to buy
RISK OFF FOR ME
I will post more but back to the markets… in summary I am cautious here and rather wait for October as September may close where it opened for the month — being a panic cycle or create a high, then down into 2 months.