Looking into this rally, below is why I am still cautious into December. For one, I just can’t buy new highs… it’s NOT how I trade. This is usually big moneys “exit liquidity” to sell their shares. Thus why I am cautious into 2025 1st Quarter.
It’s better to position trade getting a good low on a larger time frame (weekly, monthly, quarterly) then let it ride with small risk.
But keep in mind… if Trump removes Fed Income Tax… there will be a BOOM! in markets like never seen. I am hoping for some volatility prior to that event, that gives us a lower low in or around December. But being patient till then with no new positions on stocks at new highs.
NasDaq (QQQ)
Review prior election Nov 1st – WEEKLY VIEW
- The weekly (what if) bull — 488.30 showed rally if close above (friday)
- The weekly (what if) bear — 485.49 head lower if close below (friday)
- Sometimes these reversals go prior to close… especially due to catalyst event like election
- Thus why short was placed just in case I could not get in…
I place new insurance shorts with profits, due to election unknowns. Woops! wrong call, but happy they failed to protect portfolio.
Review prior election Nov 1st – MONTHLY VIEW:
Notice the Dark Green Text Bubble Below Price in the Chart Below…
- Also notice the “weird” direction change” in November
- And the what-if bull election for October being elected (this was another hint I failed to miss)
This was posted in prior post… taking profits on shorts
Happy my insurance shorts got decimated… since they were options I knew the max loss, which used profits from prior shorts.
NasDaq After The Election:
Okay, still watching and patiently waiting for December. Now that the election results are priced into market I am being patient and will like to see if this is exit liquidity for Nov 20th OPEX (option expiration). Will explain below…
NasDaq After Election Rally:
- Fantastic rally from the weekly (what if) bull 488.30
- Now testing the weekly bull reversal at 503.60 to see if close above Friday.
- Next weekly is a Turning Point & Direction Change (Can be a high, since above last week high)
As for Timing Arrays: Waiting till December
- November had that “weird” monthly bull reversal and direction change
- This gave the up move into November we see right now (posted in Dark Green Txt Bubble on Chart)
- The end of the trend before taking a rest appears to be in December
Summary:
- Still cautious… till December & watching OPEX & NVDA earnings in Nov 20th
- If Friday closes above: 503.60 weekly bull
- Then… upward to monthly bulls at 503.63 & 513.97
- If gets past monthly bulls in Nov then to weekly bull 526.97
- Time-wise: November is direction change… could be high, unless elects month bull reversal
SOME RISK TO BE AWARE OF FOR TECH:
SMCI
- Who is large NVDA customer… had accounting issues.
- Also were added into the S&P500…
- Notice the stock results after public release of fraud in accounting
NVDA
- Now you have NVDA and META asking for legal immunity from SEC
- Their largest customer SMCI was playing with the numbers
- Their is risk here… and NVDA earnings are into Nov 20
- Which is also Option Expirations
- NVDA is a large market cap that was just added to Dow Jones
- INTC was removed from Dow Jones (i bought more INTC)
- Stocks that were removed from index do better
Looking At The NVDA Charts & Reversals:
Is something cooking… not sure. I don’t trade news. But will keep watching the reversals.
I ADDED NEW SHORTS TILL DECEMBER
This is just to document and insure my positions on this big rally and NVDA concerns & OPEX. They will likely fail but could not resist the cheap insurance going into December. I added SQQQ and SPXU options with max loss limited, so risk is controlled into December.
Of course, nothing is financial advice and just journaling to understand markets better. Not Financial Advice.