On July 6th, I sent a private email to friends and family stating that markets may have a turning point on July 14th week. I use a model that is based on cycles and historic data from the Roman era (most models only go back to 1929 great depression and only focus on domestic capital, not international).
To my surprise, it appears the July 15th week was a very important moment in history.
Correlating History:
- JFK did not want the Vietnam war
- Trump does not want the war in Russia
What’s Next In Markets:
As for the markets, Looking at the Dow Jones.
- June could be the turning point and 2 months trend into Aug
- If we break higher and close above June high, we can go up into Aug.
- Need to see how Market Handles July 15th week…
Sept is important month for Dow Jones and many other markets. Lots of volatility into Aug/Sept
Looking into the weekly, July 15th week is turning point & panic cycle and we look for Aug 12th or Aug 19 week to show us next move.
As for NasDaq:
- Direction Change June & July
- Weaker trend into Aug
- Sept our main turning point
July 15th Weekly has double direction change…
- Then Aug 5th
- Aug 12th Panic with lots of Volatility
- and Aug 19th next turning point
How Money Managers View Event:
Money managers will take the stats of a presidential assassination attempt will improve Trumps polls. Since Trump wishes to lower capital gains tax, this will bring profits to the S&P by a huge margin. Thus the markets in long term have a probability to go higher.
Rogue Wave That Needs Caution:
What no one can predict rogue events, but history shows… is there is never one attempt on a president. There is usually multiples. Below is the history of attempts of presidents:
- (2) against Abraham Lincoln with the second one succeeding.
- (2) against William Howard Taft in 1909 and again in 1910.
- (2) attempts against Franklin Roosevelt.
- (2) against Harry Truman as well as against Richard Nixon and George W. Bush.
- (3) Gerald Ford had three attempts on his life.
- (2) against Jimmy Carter had two attempts.
- (5) against Bill Clinton
- (7) against Obama — most in history
What the Arrays Show:
Long term we are bullish, but volatility will rise into elections. The easiest way to handle the trade is to see if we get a low into September for a buying opportunity (low). If we get a high, then we can have a pull back possible.
International capital has no choice and will not want to hold US bonds… so US Stock market will be the safe haven. Yet, we have some fear either from War or Events like Trump rally that will scare the markets.