Okay my last plays worked out pretty well. I do not want to get over confident, but I do see a drop coming into May possibly. So I am playing for the VIX to go up (this will be the fear in the market). It could be for War or other things that may occur.
As more people short, the market keeps squeezing them. So it is better risk reward to buy VIX and go long on Out of the Money calls or low risk dips (like we just had today on 2/22/24).
I am only playing around the reversals to make a short, so patience is good. My portfolio is mostly long, but will always have insurance for protection.
Vix Play
The VIX measures the fear in the market. As the SP500 heads lower or uncertainty in the market happens, this product goes up.
Why play the VIX? Well if you look back during the COVID crash, people kept trying to short the SP500 and market with PUTS (hoping markets go down). The volatility was so high, they kept getting squeezed out of the trade for months. Till the crash happened. This appears to be a similar setup.
This guy Cem Karson takes full credit for the idea… not me. I simply connect it to my reversals.
Buying CORN… Yummy?
Remember in a prior post I talk about commodity boom coming, especially with War on the horizon. As equities are really booming right now, if you trade longer term right now does not look like a good time to be buying the indexes. There are better plays in individual stocks.
So till that time, I am finding deals. It looks like CORN (Teucrium ETF) or Futures Corn could turn up from here touching big reversals and this month is a turning point, so could be a major low.
Below is weekly chart – testing 19.10 monthly bear, with 18.80 weekly support.
