We are testing 3900 support area right now. Which could possibly give us a temp weekly low then testing back into 4125 for next two weeks.
If it breaks, we head lower to 3721 area.
The negative of this month is 4124 is a monthly bear which is likely to be elected. Yet time is giving a signal of temp low for the week and possible rally for 1.5 weeks.
Summary:
It’s possible we get panic low then rally up 2 weeks. If this does not play out, 3900 support then 3721.
We are still expecting 1st quarter new low, but nothing is a straight line. So expecting a short term bounce here. Low risk good reward here for small longs. But DO NOT rule out a new low into October or 1st quarter of 2023.
UPDATE: Played Perfectly
As of Sept 7th, 2022 —-
As of today’s close Wednesday, the market finally held 3900 and bounced nicely. Historically, Sept 1st gets a run up. But since we head lower into Sept 1st labor day, we cycle invert now to upside fooling many expecting crash below 3900.
Still watching 3900 area, but possible for 2 week rally — lets see.
Since this week is panic and direction change — it is likely that we had the low for week and then either:
- Make new week high or close to it 4090 area
- Re-test the open for the week 3940 area
Stops are now in and playing the upward movement for two weeks. Just from the feel of the market, way to many were calling for a crash here with extreme pessimism. So a rally is needed to get more offsides.
Next play:
- Possible 1.5 week rally into 4090 area
- Will Add insurance to downside if tests 4100 area just incase.
