We got the turning point discussed in the last post as we are heading lower for the SPX after all the headlines (FOMC, CPI, and now upcoming triple witching). With the volatility and liquidity crisis, it will be moves in extremes and thus harder to hold larger positions, so I usually size my positions smaller to not worry. Will be taking some of my downside insurance off and watching this weeks bear reversal 3906.53 if more downside expected.
Next Watch Points in SPX
WATCHING THE FOLLOWING LEVELS:
4325.30 — Weekly Bull Resistance
4119.30 — Weekly Bull Resistance
Current Price: 3995.33 (After FOMC and CPI Headlines) — Gapped Down on Open
3954.53 — Monthly Bearish (Red) Close Below End of Dec — New Low Past Nov Low 3704
3907.53 — Weekly Bearish(Light Pink) Close Below Gap Down into 3715 Possible
3715.20 & 3698.00 — Week may act as support into 20th December (Panic Week)
RIGHT CLICK IMAGE > OPEN IN NEW WINDOW for Better Viewing
Turning Points & Quarter 1 Plan:
Next Week — Direction Change (Choppy Big Moves)
Week of 27th Dec — Panic (If head low into this time, could make new low and blast higher)
If Month Bear Reversal Elected on Dec 30th(3954.53), We need to expect lower low than Nov 3703
Quarter 1 of 2023 or January/Feb is still our target long term as discussed months back. I will be looking to add into equities such as OIL (USO), SPX (UPRO), SILVER (SLV), GOLD (GLD), DOW JONES (UDOW), and COMMODITIES / FOOD (CORN, WEAT, KO(Coffee), and ride the dollar into 2028 (UUP) for inflation.
It will be based on reversals and support levels, only when these assets are hit at their lowest with low risk stops, will I will be placing my trades — this is NOT financial advice. Just my journal and thoughts to ensure I keep my plan regardless of the fear in media/markets.
Before The Turning Point in SPX:
Here is last weeks image of the chart so you can see how we hit resistance into 4119.30 Week Bull (Resistance) and failed lower… now today moving lower into support.
My Notes from Last Post:
Wait till we get there next week. Market likely to take a breather and liquidity crisis can create big moves over night. My long term investment self is to be patient into January for possible double bottom or rip thru low — freak everyone out and go long. The challenge is… International capital is likely to gobble up all the dips as they have been doing these past weeks. Don’t forget the bond crisis… 1/4 of bond capital can double the stock market.
My trading self will have a hedge of selling premium with downside delta to make me feel comfortable into any dips and re-adjust if wrong or exit. 3900.17 weekly close may be the hint for more downside, then 3818.50 — will review to see what the catalyst may be.
RIGHT CLICK IMAGE > OPEN IN NEW WINDOW for Better Viewing
