Okay, se we got a nice low before the week of May 7th (Of course… not on it just yet). This is why I buy with hedges in hopes of losing on the hedges. Now we are seeing some larger money sell off some stake in NVDA (shown below) and it may be possible the tech / ai money may flow into a different sector… possibly Defense and Commodities??
This week is not over yet and here is what I am watching till the Friday close for a clearer indication of the next move.
NasDaq (QQQ)
Reversals — Points where moves start
- We are now between the bull (green) and bearish (pink) reversal
- Upon closing above 440.60 (weekly bull) on friday we can head higher
- Upon close below 436.28 (weekly if bearish) on friday we head lower
Timing Arrays — Expected Turning Points
Scenario for High off 440.60:
If May 6th week makes highest close… does not close above 440.60 on friday.. and does not cycle invert higher:
- May 6th is a turning point — which means if makes high, we can head lower for week or two (time is up)
- May 13th (week) direction change (possible opposite of May 6th week high
- May 29th (week) panic cycle… possible continue to lower from May 6th high bouncing back up
Scenario for Breakout:
If we elect the 440.60 weekly bull we simply head higher into June as the higher probability.
click on image below to expand
S&P500 (SPY)
Reversal — Points where moves start
- We are also between week bull(green) and bearish(pink) reversal
- Upon closing 424.20 (week bull) on friday we can head higher
- Upon closing 509.07 (week bear) on friday we can head lower
Timing Arrays — Expecting Turning Points
- May 6th week is a turning point
- 3 weeks opposite trend after May 6th possible (if high holds)
Dow Jones (DIA)
Where Money May Focus for Future:
There is still a concern that major markets did not make a low on the May 6th (atleast not yet). If we get a low by end of week this would be a great setup, yet it is not the case as of now.
The assets which are making lows may be US Oil and commodities (such as steel). It appears as we move into the War the defense stocks, oil, gold, silver may head higher. We now see CORN, WHEAT turning up big.
Some Mutual Funds in Fidelity that I am interested in: (Not financial advice)
FFGCX – Commodity Mutual Fund (you can view the assets inside this fund)
FARMX – Agriculture Mutual Fund
FSDAX – Defense and Aerospace for War
Things I am Considering:
While many focus on tech… big money heads to different sector to hedge risk.
(Yes tech will be great… but pull backs are healthy) It appears Drukenmiller is selling some stocking NVDA… but buying some call options thinking tech is a bit over hyped right now.
It appears many will be fixated on Tech and AI… as I myself am in good positions but it may be overbought and big money slides into a different sector as we move forward into War times (like the 1970’s – stagflation)
Stagflation is in simple terms: When inflation rises… and people and businesses make less money.
This was similar times to 1970’s when Jimmy Carter was president and Iran Contra was a thing and had oil crisis where most people would wait in line for gas and it got expensive. Home mortgages were 10 % if you were lucky and then went up to 17% (which it may not get that high), but that would bring the house market down in price.
Some individual stocks I am already in or watching is shown here and will be updated.