UPDATE: 3/8/24 11:50am
Well, we got the re-test of the next reversal high in the QQQs. (FROM 436. to 447!) Below is todays chart and now falling below a new day bear (what if) from the new high made. You will see below the prior days chart where went long.
Now we are heading lower… watch 443.77 day bear.
IF CLOSES BELOW 443.77:
– Can test 437 week bull support(maybe holds), if not could test 436 again?… then will see. If above 443.77 can head higher again — so caution.
CURRENT PLAYS AS OF 3/8/24:
- Still have hedges for indexes into May low
- Shorting ARKK (bounce off weekly bulls) – into April
- Short SQQQ (for NasDaq)
- Short SOXS (semi conductors ultra-short / when buying this asset I am short semi-conductors)
- Long the VIX (working well so far)
Shorts are not great investments and only use to hedge. I hate shorting and probabilities are tough, but this allows my mind to go long if we do get an unexpected drop in markets. Also will be travelling and don’t want to be worried, so playing both sides expecting a loss.
But long term, looking to keep the longs/buys going. Hopefully May we get some low on May 7th. April looks to be a war period of time.
Todays move down was good sign for healthy pullback, — We want May 7th a low in Dow Jones for longer term upside and then a possible June take-off.
Remember this date – May 7th… it will be important to see which markets line up with May 7th (topping or bottoming). When heading lower into May, it does not seem like a recession type crash, but a pull back can get us good positioning.
Rally into March Opex Then Down?
Options expire and these are called “Option Expirations”. The larger ones are the quarterly and March is coming up. What dealer do is remove option position and roll or adjust their current positions to re-balance.
This may get a rally into March or by mid to end of March. Then after the re-balance while everyone gives up shorting the market. We can then turn around without people hedging.
No certainty in anything, just probability will low risk. NOTE: This is short term and will likely be wrong, but risk is acceptable here for quick longs and if I’m right, I can close out and then add more shorts for May 7th low?
Interesting Close (Down and Above Reversal)
Wow… so just had lunch and placed my “short term” longs in QQQ when the day bear got hit and we broke thru by the time I was back from lunch — now back at the close… the dang market is closing right above in after hours. But… we did elect in regular hours. So tough call, but risk is decent here with good reward of “blow off top” into March OPEX (option expiration).
Here Is Original Play At Noon:
So taking a look at the QQQs (NasDaq). We are perfectly testing a day bearish reversal with possible upside into 450 area? Maybe… this is my play due to the weekly bullish last week elected. Although we went below it… today was expected to have lots of volatility.
So tomorrow is turning point on daily. This could be new low or could be turn back up, hard to say. So to reduce my risk and while I have my hedges in place for downside into May. I am doing an Out of the Money call spreads in QQQ and buying 64 call in TQQQ (March 28th) at 1.30) — very risky, but exiting with new low or close below the daily bearish at 436.20 on QQQ.
REVERSALS PRICE:
436.20 – Day bearish
431.20 – Day bearish
TIMING:
3/6 – Day turning point
3/8 or 3/11 – Day Next turning point
Reversal Point Hit 436.20:
Update: 3/8/24 at 11:50am
Point hit on the QQQs and exited!
At the Close (After Hours):
Jeez… as we broke the initial reversal we are heading back up to close above the reversal in after hours. Of course shorts could be piling on, but who knows. I am waiting for the blow off top then pile on heavy shorts around march opex.
Dow Jones Did Not Elect Day Bearish
Looking at the Dow Jones, DIA we did not elect day bearish just yet. Actually went below and closed above in regular hours. This could retest above for this week to be a high if it holds this low.
Concerns Till May:
Vix
You can see the VIX popped as expected from last posts specifically off the weekly bearish(pink). Now we elected 2 day bulls in this down move today on 3/5/24.
While Dow did not elect day bear and QQQ did but made new low and rally over day bear after hours. This is no certainty and tough to call. VIX is expected to have down day tommorow and see if these day bulls hold, if they do it could continue. If not we will have market possibly go back up short term. Just my thoughts — unfortunately I have no proof of the future 😉
Other Concerns:
AAPL still has trend down into next week, same with GOOGL, and TSLA. So this could bog down the QQQ’s. So I know where I am right and where I’m wrong on this trade.