So far BOEING play and CORN play did well… but playing “short term” only here with hedges for downside.
I do not want to get to bullish short term here as March and/or May could head lower into Markets. So this is the plays I have been doing while everyone (including myself at times been calling for a top in markets) explanation of VIX hedge here. I buy VIX long term for hedge of downside in market, which causes fear – thus VIX goes higher.
I then look for cheap call options or leverages ETFs of the stocks with low risk and good reward for any pops. This is not great index investing right now and am waiting for a good low to occur in the markets in the indexes in March or more likely May.
Below are the plays I am looking at “short term”
Assets Being Used: Going long with stops
GGLL – Leveraged ETF being careful and have stops in place and ready for any gap down that may occur.
GOOY – for dividend income longer term, this ETF using covered calls to produce income on shares they own and have hedges (some are bonds – so caution).
- 135.10 weekly bear (pink) hoping to hold
- 132.90 what-if weekly bull (green) could give bounce into March
- 130.65 if 135,10 can’t hold we may test 130.65/130.10
SPY Short term long
Out of the money call spread to hopefully hit 513.80 by next week since we are retesting last weekly bull which was elected (green bear below price going to left)
UPDATE: 3/1/24 Winner
Looks like the weekly bullish reversal held and we went to the next, view chart below.
AAPL
Assets Using: Buying with stops in place for gap down
AAPL – Call spread 180c / -185c 9days left
AAPU – Leveraged ETF like buying stock (24.76 price)
AAPU – Dividend play for AAPL where they do covered calls and pay you dividend
- 179.61 holds for February we can get one more upmove for blow off top in market
- 180 areas (brown lines) need to hold on day
- 172.50 is next support after 180 area, so being cautious of gap down
- Note: APPLE announce they will stop producing Electric Vehicles and moving into AI, thus the pop yesterday.
UPDATE: 3/1/24 – Re-Add Longs
Sweep Down and looking long now from 177.80 (weekly reversal bear support) that populated in todays report. So I was lucky to remove last week to trim AAPU. Now just re-added at lower price and purchased Calls short term.
Bought more AAPL here with hopes 177.80 holds support.
FCX
Going long but cautious with the gap down below 37.60 – February close.
Copper play, but being cautious as we are testing the monthly bearish reversal right now and have to stay above for February close for pop. This is another war play as copper could go up into war times.
37.60 – Need to close above for February, if close below exiting could get gap down.
Update 3/1/24
We dipped below the monthly and sweeped out all the longs. This is why I trade at a comfortable size with more room to be wrong due to volatility. So far this is good and still long here as it holds above the monthly bearish.
Other plays into Jan 17th 2024
– ARKK
– DKNG
Using out of the money 5$ wide call spreads that the price is below $2.00
Hedging With VIX
Vix will go up when people are uncertain or fearful in market. So I expect Vix goes down (as markets make blow off top) then ride back up in end of March 4th week. This is hedge for downside protection.
Also have Out of Money Iron Condors to catch downmove in DJI and QQQ if we head lower with minimal risk. Will short if we get blow off top more directional in indexes around reversals (will post later)
REMEMBER – CAUTION!
Look at the Dow Jones right now from a technical analysis perspective.
If index investor with retirement, 340.00 or 34,000 may be support if it gets bad short term, then we go long when everyone gives up — this will be a hard trade to put on because portfolios may be ugly.
CAUTION AGAIN: Markets Closed During WWI
Remember, during WWI markets closed for 5 months and you can see a drop prior. This was the fear in the market and then they took off. So be cautious here.
By the way none of this is financial advice it is just a journal of my thoughts and a look at the markets to study them.